Bitcoin surged back above the $69,000 mark on June 12, reclaiming support after briefly dipping to $66,000 the previous day. This resurgence came amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainties, miner selling pressure, and outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, moderately positive inflation data in the United States provided a favorable environment for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, leading to record highs for the S&P 500 on June 12.
Traders are now closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can surpass the $72,000 mark, with indications from the derivatives market suggesting such a possibility.
Resilient Inflation Favors Risk-On Assets
The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May indicated a 3.3% increase from the previous year, driven by a 3.6% decrease in energy prices. While this figure exceeded the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target, it fell below market expectations, hinting at potential interest rate cuts by September. Consequently, U.S. Treasuries experienced selling pressure, pushing the 2-year yield to its lowest in 10 weeks at 4.68%.
Determining whether Bitcoin’s surge on June 12 was driven solely by short-term optimism necessitates assessing the continuity of miner and ETF outflows. Despite optimism surrounding inflation and potential economic recession, Bitcoin’s trajectory towards $72,000 largely depends on institutional inflows.
Concerns Over Miner Influence and ETF Outflows
Sophisticated investors express concerns over miner influence on Bitcoin price trends. Large transfers from miners to exchanges trigger worries about significant price drops. Notably, Marathon Digital’s sale of 1,000 BTC, valued at nearly $70 million, on June 10 negatively impacted investor sentiment. Furthermore, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a collective net outflow of $65 million on the same day, leading traders to speculate on potential issues.
Bitcoin Derivatives Display Resilience
During the dip to $66,000, Bitcoin’s primary derivatives metric exhibited resilience, suggesting traders weren’t overly reliant on excessive leverage. The Bitcoin futures premium briefly touched the neutral 10% level on June 11 before rebounding to 13%, indicating cautious optimism among traders. Despite a slight uptick in demand for protective put options, both Bitcoin futures and options markets maintain a bullish sentiment, signaling the potential for further gains towards $72,000.
Analysis
Bitcoin’s resurgence above $69,000 signals renewed confidence amidst positive economic indicators. While concerns over miner influence and ETF outflows persist, the derivatives market remains optimistic, indicating potential upside towards $72,000. However, sustaining this rally hinges on institutional inflows and market sentiment in the coming days.
